O'Brien Commercial

Pure. Tenant and Corporate Representation.

Expected Value (EV)

The sum of the weighted averages of all possible outcomes of a probability distribution. Probability distribution is the collection of all possible outcomes for an event and their corresponding probabilities of occurrence. The probabilities of occurrence for each possible outcome are used as the weights. The sum of each possible value multiplied by its probability of occurrence equals the EV of the outcome. EVs can be calculated for any type of outcome the investor chooses to analyze: net operating incomes, after-tax cash flows, and rates of return (IRRs). An example of calculating the EV of the IRR for an investment follows:

Scenario IRR% Probability Weighted Average
Best-case 17.0 0.10 1.70
Most-likely case 14.6 0.80 11.68
Worst-case 13.2 0.10 1.32
    Sum = 1.00 EV = 14.70
« Back to Glossary Index